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Why You Should Be Thrilled About Ausytralia Right Now |
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Why You Should Be Thrilled
About Australia Right Now
If Henry David Thoreau was right when he wrote, “That government is best which governs least,” then Australia got itself the best government in the world on Saturday.
Of course technically speaking, Australia didn’t elect a government. And that government which is not a government cannot govern at all. Thus, “not at all” being less than “least”, the unelected government not elected on Saturday is best!
Okay. Enough of the japery. Let us put our dour and serious face on and see what Saturday’s election means for markets...
On second thought, let’s not be serious. After all, this is a great result, is it not? That would be the unconventional take on things. The conventional take is that markets hate uncertainty. What they got on Saturday was an extra portion of uncertainty with a dollop of extra time. But to paraphrase Gordon Gecko, “Gridlock is good.”
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With neither major party able to secure 76 seats in the lower House of Parliament on its own, and with postal and absentee votes to be counted in some key electorates, there may not be an official result for at least a few days, and maybe longer. It’s a hung parliament left twisting in the wind. But upon further review, we’d be surprised to see a big move in the currency or the share market in the next few days. Why?
Gridlocked governments have to govern from the centre, and they usually don’t get very much done. About the only certain result from a gridlocked government is no major legislation will be passed. That’s generally a positive result for everyone. If no news is good news, no news laws are good laws. In fact, we’d be willing to offer politicians a raise if they promised to do nothing. Put them on the dole!
That the market could rise in such a fluid environment may seem wacky. But it’s a wacky world. Given the nature of the status quo, with three of the independent members of the lower House former members of the National party and another National elected in Western Australia, it looks like the Mineral Resource Rent Tax is dead (MRRT).
Killing the tax might not be popular with constituencies on the fringe, but it’s about the only thing Labor could offer the three ex-Nationals as a sweetener for their vote. On the other hand, Tony Abbott could probably promise some kind of hybrid public-private national broadband network and that might do the trick. It doesn’t look a carbon tax or a revised emissions-trading scheme will figure in the horse-trading.
But then, we know nothing in general and even less about Australian politics. It has been an entertaining weekend though. And full credit to the Australian people for voicing their discontent with both parties.
One possible outcome, according to former Treasurer Peter Costello, is a weak government that hangs on for a year or so and then is forced to go back to the polls. And that’s assuming that one of the parties is able to form a minority government. What would this mean for the share market and the currency?
The longer there is uncertainty about the two major policy issues that affect the resource market — the MRRT and the ETS — the more negative it is for Australian stocks. We reckon a weak, one-year government makes it a trader’s market, but that’s about it. You can’t expect a big rebound in Aussie shares until the threat of a mining tax is “de-risked” from the investment picture.
That said, one man’s uncertainty is another man’s Africa. The longer Australian resource projects are in limbo over MRRT doubt, the more appealing similar projects in other countries look. Is there less political risk in Africa — the threat of constantly changing laws — than there is Australia? Probably not. But is there more? Probably not.
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On an entirely different note, data out from the U.S. government last week showed official Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds from $938.1 billion September of last year to $843.7 billion in June of this year. That’s an 11% decline. How about that?
By not rolling over or adding to their U.S. bond holdings, the Chinese slowly reduce their vulnerability to a weaker U.S. dollar. They also, you’d think, slowly dial back their position as the largest creditor to the U.S. government. And who is buying the bonds the Chinese are buying less of?
If it’s the Federal Reserve, isn’t that a rich irony? The Fed would effectively be covering China’s retreat from the dollar. It would allow China to gradually exit its dollar position without causing a panic. And meanwhile, the end result — the destruction of the U.S currency — would be accomplished vie debt monetisation by the Fed. Pretty nifty. Nice work Fed.
Regards,
Dan Denning
Why You Should Be Thrilled About Australia Right Now is featured at Whiskey & Gunpowder.
A Parting Shot
Whither the misery, Shooters?
Falling real wages, a vanishing middle class, a spiral into Third World status…
The cart, the horse?
Here collectivists and bleeding hearts raise the hue and cry about how unfair it all is. Why did the cost of living outpace people’s incomes? Why is the middle class shrinking as its former members join the ranks of the poor? Why isn’t someone doing something?
Ah, good patrons, someone has been doing something. That’s why this is all happening in the first place.
The pundits treat price inflation as a natural phenomenon, like aging. They never stop to consider that price inflation could be unnatural, that it could have a nefarious cause, like an assassination by poisoning…that it could be the result of a very specific deliberate action by specific people…people who run governments and central banks…
“Blame the bankers and their collusion with government? That’s right wing nut-jobbery!”
Except it’s not. Americans didn’t absolutely have to go into debt to keep up the same way heroin addicts don’t have to keep shooting up to stay alive…not initially anyway.
The continuous, grinding price inflation is induced by money supply inflation and the expansion of credit. And that’s the function of banks both central and otherwise. The new money and new debt allows those with first dibs on it to bid prices up first. Those further down the chain have to take on new debt to keep up. New money comes later in the form of cost of living raises that tend to lag price inflation pretty badly. So price inflation outpaces the rise in incomes by just a bit. But give that small lead thirty or forty years and the resulting gap is wide enough for the middle class to fall right through.
It’s a clever ploy. Get the masses on the side of flexible money and “mild” inflation. Of course it seems like it works at first, like the fast track to rising wealth levels and standards of living. But those in a flexible, inflationary system are being lied to even as they’re being robbed. Their ability to save is destroyed and they’re forced to speculate in Other Asset Classes because they can’t rely on their own currency maintaining its value. They’re taught to fear their savings actually increasing in value ala price deflation. Ha!
A mild price deflation is what would happen in a stable currency system backed by gold in a slowly growing economy. But it’s mild inflation and a roaring economy high on debt, which are sold to the public. Inflation has a rousing effect on economies the way a shot of whiskey has a rousing effect on wit, charm and sense of wellbeing.
Honest money and its deflationary effects result in a slower but vastly more sustainable growth. They’re sort of like counting on good habits and hard work to secure one’s happiness instead of heavy drinking.
But that’s not where we are today. Postwar debt expansion and the go-go Greenspan years made for quite the party. Now we begin the multiyear hangover. Heck, now we begin the great fall. There may be no coming back from this one.
Think I’m kidding? Empire has a way of not bestowing its blessings on the same people twice. And standards of living have a way of falling quite a bit during and after the end.
In order to prepare yourself and get a slew of options you can start exploring right away, I recommend that you check out the DVD series “The Fall of America and the Western World.” There are still a few of you Shooters who haven’t bought it yet. Many of you already have already made the very good decision to do so. For the rest of you it’s not too late…but things are getting worse by the day…so click here to learn more about the series right now.
How bad is it getting? People are losing their overly leveraged homes as their jobs disappear. The lucky ones move in with relatives who can still afford to help. The less lucky are moving into homeless shelters, tent cities or living in their cars. Those of us who still have incomes wonder how much longer those incomes will last.
“It’s as if the U.S. economy is rolling up its shutters and hanging up an ‘Out of Business’ sign,” I told Dan Denning recently in an email.
I’d been asking some of Agora’s associates who had lived or were currently living in Australia what life was like down there. It seemed to me that any English-speaking person looking for work should consider leaving these shores and going someplace where the economy is expanding.
And right now as Dan reported, Australia has a brief respite of sorts from the meddlers in nice suits. You may want to keep the place in mind as a permanent destination (Check out the Daily Reckoning Australia if you do...or even if you don’t!), even if they do end up instituting that damned mineral tax.
Regards,
Gary Gibson
Managing Editor, Whiskey & Gunpowder
Posted by chester on Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:12 pm ( comments? Groovey Store | Score: 0) |
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How to See Auras
Psychic Workout
by Psychic Marin ext. 5113
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Tao of Lakota, North Dakota asks:
How does anybody really "see" auras? My own opinion is that auras are physiological rather than spiritual, but I'm fascinated to understand more.
Psychic Marin responds:
Martha Graham, an American dancer, choreographer and pioneer of modern dance in the 1920s, was able to capture the essence of the human aura, describing it as a vitality, a life force, and an energy that is translated through you into action. Because there is only one "you," this energetic expression will always be unique.
From a scientific perspective, an aura is the energy field that surrounds the human body, or any matter composed of an atomic structure. Did I lose you already? OK, hang in there with me for a minute. You may feel like you're in Physics 101.
Within our atomic structure are positive and negative charges that interact with one another. The increase in interaction results in more energy production, visible as a vibrant light or aura.
The crown chakra, the energy source located at the top of our head, is the origin of the aura. Here lies the brain, the most active area of our body.
When you imagine an angel, do you instantly visualize a figure with a halo above its head? The halo, often seen around the heads of prominent religious figures like Mary and Jesus, identifies someone with a strong energy field and sacred aura. Fortunately, we have evolved in our scientific understanding of the aura and equipment has been developed that allows us to capture one's aura through photography. You may have seen these fancy cameras at psychic fairs. Although aura photography is a useful tool, highly sensitive individuals have the ability to visually see auras without the use of photographic equipment. I will never forget the first time I saw an aura. I did a double take, simply because I had never seen anything quite like it. I thought my eyesight was distorted, or that I was suffering from some form of selectively blurred vision. Little did I know that I was developing the ability to see auras. You too may have this ability, and an afternoon of people-watching from a park bench will help nurture it.
Developing your ability to see auras
1. Find a comfortable bench in a busy park or city street, a place where you will be exposed to a variety of individuals. The more diverse (socially, culturally or economically), the better.
2. Choose a person close by. Try to locate a stationary person, rather than someone in motion, as the aura will be easier to decipher.
3. With an intense gaze (you may want to wear sunglasses so you don't appear to be staring), watch the person in front of you, paying specific attention to the head area. Visualize their head floating in thin air, allowing the rest of their human form to disappear.
4. Keep your eyes open for as long as possible and avoid blinking. At first, your eyes may burn, which is to be expected. As you practice, the muscles in your eyes will strengthen until you can hold a gaze for a long time. Some professional scryers (crystal ball readers) and aura readers can maintain their intense gaze for a at least 30 minutes.
5. Don't let your eyes wander. Rather, keep them fixed, looking intensely at the head of the person in front of you.
6. Eventually, the clear details of the face will become blurry, and the human form will begin to appear milky white.
7. Next, you will begin to see light and/or colors surrounding the head. Auras appear in a variety of forms, from rays of light to rings, rainbows or even spots of color. There is no right or wrong way of seeing an aura.
8. If for some reason you have difficulty seeing an aura, choose another person and try the exercise again.
9. Once you have identified an aura surrounding someone, continue watching for at least five minutes. Does the aura change colors? Does it change in intensity, growing stronger or diminishing in brightness? Does it immediately change from one color to another? Note any surrounding activity that could have contributed to a change. Take a look at the following aura attributes to help you understand the meaning of aura colors and patterns.
Aura attributes
Clear/Bright Aura: Positive state of mind, healthy
Invisible/absent Aura: Withdrawn, reluctant, distrustful
Faded/Dull Aura: Illness, sadness, grieving
Red Aura: Active, strength
Pink Aura: Loving, compassionate
Orange Aura: Intellectually strong, honorable
Yellow Aura: Well balanced
Green Aura: Creative, feisty, restless, active
Blue Aura: Healing
Purple Aura: Psychic abilities, mediumship
White Aura: Purity, divine messenger, angelic
Black Aura: Negativity, depression, mental health difficulties
Environmental influences and the energies we absorb from others can take their toll on us. Understanding this and being able to "see" the aura will encourage you to maintain good "aura health." Identify what aspects of life strengthen or weaken your aura. The stronger your aura, the more it can act like a barrier and offer psychic shielding and protection.
Indulge in the small miracle and beauty of seeing another individual's aura, and recognize that you possess a gift that allows you to see people through a different perspective. Treat this newly discovered ability with respect and appreciation, and most importantly, use it responsibly!
Faithfully,
Marin
What color is your aura? Call 1.800.573.4830 or Pick a Psychic.
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Posted by chester on Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:42 pm ( comments? Groovey Store | Score: 0) |
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Do Not Be Bashfull $1 Donations are GREAT |
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Do not Be Bashful $1 Donations are GREAT If you enjoy the site and the information Donate A Dollar Click on pay pal to the right THANKS
Posted by chester on Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:33 am ( comments? Groovey Store | Score: 0) |
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Debt Rise and Goes Unpaid |
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Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity
By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: August 11, 2010
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PHOENIX — During the great housing boom, homeowners nationwide borrowed a trillion dollars from banks, using the soaring value of their houses as security. Now the money has been spent and struggling borrowers are unable or unwilling to pay it back.
The delinquency rate on home equity loans is higher than all other types of consumer loans, including auto loans, boat loans, personal loans and even bank cards like Visa and MasterCard, according to the American Bankers Association.
Lenders say they are trying to recover some of that money but their success has been limited, in part because so many borrowers threaten bankruptcy and because the value of the homes, the collateral backing the loans, has often disappeared.
The result is one of the paradoxes of the recession: the more money you borrowed, the less likely you will have to pay up.
“When houses were doubling in value, mom and pop making $80,000 a year were taking out $300,000 home equity loans for new cars and boats,” said Christopher A. Combs, a real estate lawyer here, where the problem is especially pronounced. “Their chances are pretty good of walking away and not having the bank collect.”
Lenders wrote off as uncollectible $11.1 billion in home equity loans and $19.9 billion in home equity lines of credit in 2009, more than they wrote off on primary mortgages, government data shows. So far this year, the trend is the same, with combined write-offs of $7.88 billion in the first quarter.
Even when a lender forces a borrower to settle through legal action, it can rarely extract more than 10 cents on the dollar. “People got 90 cents for free,” Mr. Combs said. “It rewards immorality, to some extent.”
Utah Loan Servicing is a debt collector that buys home equity loans from lenders. Clark Terry, the chief executive, says he does not pay more than $500 for a loan, regardless of how big it is.
“Anything over $15,000 to $20,000 is not collectible,” Mr. Terry said. “Americans seem to believe that anything they can get away with is O.K.”
But the borrowers argue that they are simply rebuilding their ravaged lives. Many also say that the banks were predatory, or at least indiscriminate, in making loans, and nevertheless were bailed out by the federal government. Finally, they point to their trump card: they say will declare bankruptcy if a settlement is not on favorable terms.
“I am not going to be a slave to the bank,” said Shawn Schlegel, a real estate agent who is in default on a $94,873 home equity loan. His lender obtained a court order garnishing his wages, but that was 18 months ago. Mr. Schlegel, 38, has not heard from the lender since. “The case is sitting stagnant,” he said. “Maybe it will just go away.”
Mr. Schlegel’s tale is similar to many others who got caught up in the boom: He came to Arizona in 2003 and quickly accumulated three houses and some land. Each deal financed the next. “I was taught in real estate that you use your leverage to grow. I never dreamed the properties would go from $265,000 to $65,000.”
Apparently neither did one of his lenders, the Desert Schools Federal Credit Union, which gave him a home equity loan secured by, the contract states, the “security interest in your dwelling or other real property.”
Desert Schools, the largest credit union in Arizona, increased its allowance for loan losses of all types by 926 percent in the last two years. It declined to comment.
The amount of bad home equity loan business during the boom is incalculable and in retrospect inexplicable, housing experts say. Most of the debt is still on the books of the lenders, which include Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
“No one had ever seen a national real estate bubble,” said Keith Leggett, a senior economist with the American Bankers Association. “We would love to change history so more conservative underwriting practices were put in place.”
The delinquency rate on home equity loans was 4.12 percent in the first quarter, down slightly from the fourth quarter of 2009, when it was the highest in 26 years of such record keeping. Borrowers who default can expect damage to their creditworthiness and in some cases tax consequences.
Nevertheless, Mr. Leggett said, “more than a sliver” of the debt will never be repaid.
Eric Hairston plans to be among this group. During the boom, he bought as an investment a three-apartment property in Hoboken, N.J. At the peak, when the building was worth as much as $1.5 million, he took out a $190,000 home equity loan.
Mr. Hairston, who worked in the technology department of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, invested in a Northern California pizza catering company. When real estate cratered, Mr. Hairston went into default.
The building was sold this spring for $750,000. Only a small slice went to the home equity lender, which reserved the right to come after Mr. Hairston for the rest of what it was owed.
Mr. Hairston, who now works for the pizza company, has not heard again from his lender.
Since the lender made a bad loan, Mr. Hairston argues, a 10 percent settlement would be reasonable. “It’s not the homeowner’s fault that the value of the collateral drops,” he said.
Marc McCain, a Phoenix lawyer, has been retained by about 300 new clients in the last year, many of whom were planning to walk away from properties they could afford but wanted to be rid of — strategic defaulters. On top of their unpaid mortgage obligations, they had home equity loans of $50,000 to $150,000.
Fewer than 5 percent of these clients said they would continue paying their home equity loan no matter what. Ten percent intend to negotiate a short sale on their house, where the holders of the primary mortgage and the home equity loan agree to accept less than what they are owed. In such deals primary mortgage holders get paid first.
The other 85 percent said they would default and worry about the debt only if and when they were forced to, Mr. McCain said.
“People want to have some green pastures in front of them,” said Mr. McCain, who recently negotiated a couple’s $75,000 home equity debt into a $3,500 settlement. “It’s come to the point where morality is no longer an issue.”
Darin Bolton, a software engineer, defaulted on the loans for his house in a Chicago suburb last year because “we felt we were just tossing our money into a hole.” This spring, he moved into a rental a few blocks away.
“I’m kind of banking on there being too many of us for the lenders to pursue,” he said. “There is strength in numbers.”
John Collins Rudolf contributed reporting.
A version of this article appeared in print on August 12, 2010, on page A1 of the New York edition.
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Posted by chester on Thu Aug 12, 2010 1:45 pm ( comments? Groovey Store | Score: 0) |
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Posted by chester on Tue Mar 30, 2010 10:45 am ( comments? Groovey Store | Score: 0) |
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